I have been looking at some of the online message boards to determine how the protests in Egypt are coming along and based on what I have seen so far we are in for rough times ahead. Almost 100% of posters of middle east origin are urging any new Egyptian government to spurn it's treaty with Israel and start actively working against Israels continued existence. Now Israel is territorially secure with it's nuclear capabilities but that doesn't mean they won't be attacked by the Arabs. Egypt could refuse to block weapon shipments into Gaza from the Egyptian side of the border. They could also start supporting Hamas, Syria, and Iran in the media with non-stop verbal attacks. If the Islamists ends up running the show in Egypt things could be even worse. If events take this direction I predict several things:
1. If Israel feels besieged and backed into a corner they will unleash their military for real. Operation "Cast Lead" and their Lebanon war will look like walks in the park compared to what Israel could unleash.
2. If by chance Turkey gets any ideas on joining in the fun I guarantee the US would make sure they sit down and re-think their plan through one more time.
3. The Palestinians will never see any peace of any kind except in death and they can thank the surrounding Arab countries for putting them out of their misery once and for all. After all it's the surrounding Arab countries who created and fomented the Palestinian problem in the first place.
Like the US, Israel has shown the world in both words and deeds that it will use force whenever they deem it necessary without regard to what other countries or especially the UN says. And Israel also knows that there is not a single country on the planet outside of the middle east who would commit troops or equipment in a war against Israel. Hell, the US is the only country capable of moving large military assets around the world in a timely fashion and we already have enough forces in the area to back up Israel if it comes down to that.
Even though I didn't really support the Iraq and Afghanistan wars I do believe it was necessary to show the world that the US will not beholden to world opinion and certainly not to the UN when it comes to using force in it's own interests. For too many years the world has set by and did nothing to reign in the international terrorists, despotic dictators, and their many enablers and supporters. And yes this definitely includes the US as well. Popping off a few cruise missiles might make you feel good but they are not terribly effective with no follow-up.
UN resolutions, peace quartets, and endless discussion groups can only go so far. If there are no real consequences to behaving a certain way why would talking about it produce any worthwhile results? A wake up call was finally needed and 9/11 gave the US government the opportunity to deliver such a message. The threat of force only works if the negotiating parties actually believe you are willing to use force when the discussions fail.
CNN has posted an opinion piece basically blaming the US for the unrest in Egypt and Tunisia. The commentator says that the US has been a strong backer of both governments in the past and it's their fault (the US governments) that these countries are in distress. The US has been working with the existing governments because both countries gained from the interaction. Is the commentator suggesting the US government should have been pursuing regime change? It's the same old BS. If the US speaks out they are interfering and if they don't speak out they are supporting the evil and corrupt governments. You can't have it both ways. The commentator used Iran as an example of the US speaking out for the Green revolution but not speaking out and supporting the current Egyptian revolution. These 2 situations are not the same. The US has no diplomatic relations with Iran so there is nothing to lose by giving them a hard time. The US currently has diplomatic relations with Egypt and does not want to jeopardise their relations by becoming involved in a situation that is entirely internal to Egypt and still volatile. People also forget that the US did become active in the Venezuela revolution by supporting the revolutionaries but in the end Chavez came out on top and relations between the 2 countries have basically ceased to exist. Why take the chance in Egypt? What if Mubarak survives? No, the US is not to blame for the current mess. The blame falls on the Egyptians themselves and it is up to them to direct their own future. The first step in doing this is to stop blaming others for all your problems and start addressing your own problems.
I wish the US would just work with the exisiting governments and do what they can to benefit the US and leave all the revolutionaries to fend for themselves. Let China come and start working on the Israel-Palestinian negotiations and see how far they get in the mad house of the middle east. Although I have to say China has been very successful in handling situations like this. Starting with Mao who killed an estimated 30 million people who didn't leap forward fast enough, taking care of the trouble makers in Tibet, handling the Uighars nuisances, and basically imprisoning or killing anyone who disagrees with the Chinese governments policies. China has acheived steller results from their steady and consistant manner of dealing with these types of problems and issues so I say give them a chance to get involved and the US can sit back and watch the fun.
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